Where is Dalal Street headed this week

The benchmark equity indices showed a trend reversal and ended the last week’s last trading session in the positive territory. The NSE Nifty 50 soared 190 points or 1.01% to settle at 19,047.25, while the BSE Sensex climbed 634.65 points or 1.01% to 63,782.80 on Friday. On a weekly basis, the NSE Nifty 50 experienced a significant decline of 2.53%, mirroring the BSE Sensex, which also saw a substantial drop of 2.46% last week. These downward trends are primarily attributed to the moderate performance of Indian Inc in the second quarter of FY24 as well as the influence of weak global cues.

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“Ongoing unrest in West Asia and concerns over the potential impacts of higher interest rates on future economic growth have resulted in a decline in investor confidence. FIIs selling is affecting the domestic market invariably to heavy buying by DIIs. Domestic indices have displayed some recovery in the last trading day of the week, due to favourable US Q3 GDP growth and moderating US inflation leading to moderation in bond yield. Decent Q2 results in India, which were in line with optimistic estimates, may also support the market’s rebound. However, the volatility of the global market is expected to delay the recovery trend of the domestic market, since the global market is focused on the risk of further slowdown of the global economy due to elevated interest rate and geo-political tension,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

Vinod Nair further added that, “Amidst the ongoing market consolidation, sectors such as FMCG, consumption, fertilizers, and core segments like infrastructure, housing, are expected to present potential growth opportunities. Contributing factors include the mitigation of risks associated with raw material costs and a stable long-term demand outlook from external sectors, which may specifically support sectors like Chemical and Pharma in the medium-term. In the short-term, market sentiment remains cautious, with investors closely monitoring developments in West Asia, upcoming corporate earnings, and key economic data, including domestic PMI figures; to be announced this week.”

Will Nifty scale to 25,000 and end the week with gains? See GIFT Nifty, FII data, F&O ban, crude, more before market opens Will Nifty scale up to 24,500, or will it face further decline? See GIFT Nifty, FII data, F&O ban, crude, more before market opens Volatility Index jumps 50% as markets sell-off; VIX sees biggest surge since August 2015 Will Nifty hold 24,500 or see further sell off on Monday? See GIFT Nifty, FII data, F&O ban, crude, more before market opens

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Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have maintained their trend of divestment by offloading equities with a net value of Rs 13,187 crore in the past week. Commenting on the sustained withdrawal by FIIs, Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Research (Retail) at Kotak Securities, said, “FII flows are likely to stay volatile in emerging markets, including India, due to weak global factors. Renewed uptick in US bond yields has led to risk-off sentiment amongst the investors who are deploying funds in safe haven assets. The west Asia conflict and a mixed Q2 earnings so far has made investors jittery about the near term prospects of domestic markets, leading to sell offs. Once the valuations start becoming attractive and volatility reduces, foreign inflows could make a comeback.”

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